Key Derby Candidates Offer Betting Value Based on Latest Odds

An analysis of the current 2012 Kentucky Derby odds shows bettors are expecting another wide-open race this year—with perhaps one notable exception. Union Rags, despite getting upended in the Florida Derby in his final Kentucky Derby prep, remains the solid 7-to-2 favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby odds coming out of Las Vegas.

Union Rags has held the favorites mantle since his scintillating win in the Grade 1 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park at the end of February. He ran third in the Florida Derby, but many bettors have excused the performance because Union Rags received a questionable ride from jockey Julien Leparoux and encountered traffic problems.

Others haven't been as quick to excuse the performance and are looking elsewhere for the Kentucky Derby winner. Currently there are several solid options available at juicy odds.

Gemologist, the undefeated winner of the Wood Memorial from the powerful Todd Pletcher barn, is offering good value at 7-to-1 in the 2012 Kentucky Derby odds. Gemologist was extremely impressive winning the Wood and if he can run back to that race, 7-to-1 in the Kentucky Derby would be a gift.

Hansen, last year's champion 2-year-old, is listed at 10-to-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds. The big gray won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in his previous start and will use the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland as his final Kentucky Derby tuneup on April 14.

How about 14-to-1 on the winner of the West Coast's most important Kentucky Derby prep race? That's the price currently on offer for I'll Have Another, the game winner of the Santa Anita Derby over Creative Cause.

Speaking of Creative Cause, he remains slightly favored over I'll Have Another, despite just being beaten by that one in the Santa Anita Derby. Creative Cause is listed at 12-to-1. The son of Giant's Causeway raced without his usual blinkers in the Santa Anita Derby, but is expected to have them back on for the Kentucky Derby.

Also at 12-to-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds is Alpha, who was a solid second to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial Stakes. Alpha is proving to be a consistently hard-trier, as evidenced by his wins in the Count Fleet Stakes and Withers Stakes earlier this winter and his effort in the Wood. Alpha stretched Gemologist every step in the Wood, but unfortunately it looked like he was never going to get by the winner no matter how far they ran.

What about 15-to-1 on the Grade 1 Florida Derby winner? That's what you'll currently get if you back Take Charge Indy, the front-running victor of Gulfstream Park's major Kentucky Derby prep race. Those odds may drop on Derby day, largely because three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel will be in the irons. Since becoming the first jockey to ever win three Kentucky Derby's in a four-year span, Borel's horses have been heavily overbet and Take Charge Indy doesn't figure to be any different.