As the Earth’s climate changes, new stresses will be placed on the planet’srnresources and those who are tasked with managing them. The available datarnindicates that the global climate has warmed by approximately 0.74 °C (1.3 °F)rnover the past hundred years, from 1906-2005 . Furthermore, many scientistsrnpredict that the Earth’s average temperature could rise an additionalrn1.4 °C (2.5 °F) or more in the coming century. A great deal of attention hasrnbeen paid to what contributing role human activities may be playing in thisrntemperature rise; greenhouse gases, most specifically carbon dioxide (CO2),rnproduced as fossil fuels such as oil and coal are burned are cited as the majorrndrivers behind this temperature rise. In an effort to counter the trend, nationsrnbegan to propose reductions in greenhouse gases; at the Kyoto conference ofrn1992, specific greenhouse gas reduction targets were set for many industrializedrnnations aimed at an overall reduction of 5.2% by 2010. The Copenhagenrnconference, planned for 2009, is expected to push these target reductions evenrnfurther.
For all of the effort and attention paid to climate change in the past tworndecades, however, many industrialized nations’ greenhouse gas emissionsrnactually increased after Kyoto. Even more troubling, the proposed reductionsrnbeing currently discussed for the Copenhagen conference will likely have little,rnif any, measureable effect on the world’s climate. Most experts activelyrnengaged in climate research estimate that a 50% or more reduction in man-maderngreenhouse gases would be needed to diminish or stall the current warming trend;rnby contrast, the European Union is currently advocating a 20% reduction planrnover the next 10 years (2010-2020) , a reduction level that the experts sayrnwill offer no impact. These scientists back up this assertion by demonstrating,rnthrough computer-based modeling, that 20% emissions reductions yield no significant reduction in the warming trend.
Often cited as reasons to push the industrialized world faster toward greenhouserngas reductions, are the stories of what might happen if the world’s climaternspins out of control. Mass extinctions, monster hurricanes, floods, the grainrnbelts turning to desert – all have been cited as potential disasters if the worldrndoes not change its course. Even movies depicting a sudden ice age, completernwith blasts of air cold enough to instantly freeze a person, have been producedrnas theatrical warnings of our coming peril. To be sure, most of these arernover-exaggerations of what may come, but scientists generally agree that somernchange is inevitable; what is not in agreement is what those changes will be.
rnIn light of the world’s general behavior, and coupled with the fact that scientistsrnbelieve that deep reductions in emissions are required to produce a tangiblernimpact, it is unlikely that the current warming trend will stop. What does thatrnmean for the world? What can be done to prepare for or even mitigate therneffects of these changes?
In the next few articles, H2Bid will explore some likelyrnoutcomes of a warming world and propose some actionable plans that could helprnto lessen the strain on water systems that may face challenges in the wake of these outcomes.
Global Climate Change Part 1