How will Apple do in 2012?

We all know that the world will end in 2012, at least that’s what the Mayans and Roland Emmerich would have us believe. But barring that December 2012 comes and goes, how will Apple look at the end of the year? Will it still be the tablet king, with 80% market share? Will the iPhone still be the Jesus phone? Will Jobs’ passing spell doom for the tech behemoth, or will his people be able to carry the torch?

To start, look at the iPhone. One challenge is the and iOS is limited to one phone, the iPhone. Android phones are everywhere. In face, Samsung has already overthrown Apple for the #1 crown. Coupled with the upcoming release of Ice Cream Sandwich, Android’s new and improved operating system, and it looks like the iPhone has finally met it’s match. iPhone fanatics have always clung to the notion that Apple has iTunes and the app store. Well, Android has some 320,000 apps, most of which are the ones people want. Even with Siri, which was an acquisition by Apple, the iPhone just can’t keep a stranglehold on the market anymore. The iPhone is still an amazing phone, especially since they opened it up to Verizon and Sprint, but 2012 will be the year that it stops being the phone to beat.

On the tablet front, the iPad will be at the top for a while. Yes, America is tablet crazy, and with the Kindle Fire debuting at $199, the low-end market will be dominated by someone other than Apple. The higher end market will do some work on the iPad’s market share, but not much. OLED screens will come out this year, but the price point will be much higher than what’s needed to be competitive immediately. The Kindle Fire has calmed down a bit since it’s launch in November, but still looks really impressive for its price point. Apple will still be on top when the smoke clears, but I doubt it will retain its 80% market share.

The future for Apple lies, as it always has, with it’s innovations. Rumor mill has it that Jobs left behind years of product plans and it’s no secret that Apple was extremely forward thinking. If I recall correctly, the iPad design was copyrighted in 2004, but the product itself wasn’t released until 2010. How’s that for forward thinking? Of course there won’t be anyone (at least that we know of yet) to give Apple employees a thorough tongue-lashing when they mess up (read: MobileMe), but at least the ideas are there. So far, the iPhone 4S seems to be doing just fine. If only the trend can continue…

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