Post Positions Can Affect the Outcome of the 2012 Kentucky Derby

Statistical analysis of Kentucky Derby Post Positions will tell us that the first five spots along the rail are the best.  However, it will also show you that there have been very few winners from the outside or the rail in the last 40 years.  The 137th Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 5, 2012, and a post time of 6:24 P.M EDT, and we will get another chance to see whether the post position of the winner matters at all.  The drawing for the post positions are random, so we can all at least be secure in the knowledge that it’s done fairly. Thing is, does it really matter in the grand scheme of things?  What I mean to say is, if the horse is good enough to win a race as prestigious as the Kentucky Derby, does the post position matter in the least?  In 1977 Seattle Slew, a frontrunner if there ever was one, had a post position along the rail and nearly got caught in traffic during the frantic race for the first turn.  Getting stuck behind a wall of horses at the first turn would have been disastrous for a horse like Slew, and when you watch the race, it’s almost as if he knows it, too.  He pushed and shoved and banged other horses aside just when it looked like he would get trapped; he really threw his weight around.  Then before you knew it, there he was at the first turn, in second place and in easy striking distance, which he took advantage of along the backstretch.   And what about Secretariat?  He had the number ten post in a thirteen horse field.  Does anybody really believe that he would have lost that race had he been stuck in traffic early?  Not a chance, but why?  Because, most importantly, Secretariat was simply too much horse, not just for 1973, but for any year.  But there’s something else to consider: he was a) a closer, so the break from the gate and early position didn’t matter all that much, and b) he also actually sucked back after the first few jumps out of the gate, letting the whole field get in front of him.  For those who have only watched the 1973 Kentucky Derby and perhaps the Belmont Stakes who may not be familiar with Secretariat’s career, it may startle them to discover that Secretariat’s performance in that race was typical.  He would break nicely, but then willingly drop back.  Then at some point, sometimes along the backstretch, sometimes around the final turn, and sometimes in the stretch, he would swoop around the field in a dramatic move and usually blow the field away.  That’s exactly what he did in the Derby, and if it hadn’t been for Sham, who just happened to run the second fastest Derby (behind Secretariat) on the same DAY, his margin of victory would have been over ten lengths.  Did the post position contribute?  Not in the slightest.   Then again consider 1988, when Risen Star, son of Secretariat, got caught in traffic early and then couldn’t run down Winning Colors in the stretch.  Was that a case where the inside post position hurt the horse’s chances?  Maybe, maybe not, but if Hansen or Union Rags are truly worthy of being a champion, one can’t help but think the post position won’t matter in this year’s Kentucky Derby .